Around 80% and the NBA Lottery

Quick link.  This video made me respect Kyrie Irving a little more. Thanks to a guy at work that sent it to me.

Wow, what a series of unexpected events.  After all four teams controlled home court through the first four games, the Celtics and the Thunder went on to win game 5 in their respective series.  The best part was that they did it on the road.  The Thunder then finished off the Spurs last night coming back from a 15 point deficit at the half.  Unbelievable that a seasoned team like the Spurs would give up such a lead.  I will have to go back to the tapes, but it seems like the Spurs have given up double digit leads in 3 out of the last 4 games.  It could have gone the other way, but the Thunder is just that good.  I thought they were still a year out from reaching their potential (a championship), but they are playing at that other level.  It seems like Durant's shot just gets prettier as the playoffs go on.  And he is also doing it from further and further from the rim.  I am really happy to have caught so much of the playoffs this year.  There have been some truly great games, and being able to watch the Thunder get better as the finals get closer, is right up there with the 2008 season when the big three of the Celtics finally got theirs.  It is always nice to see a team work hard to develop chemistry and have it pay off in the end.

Speaking of the Celtics, they pulled off quite the upset the other night.  I aimed to do write ups of the series early in the weeks, but decided to wait until the game 5's were played.  I was happy I waited.  The Celtics played a mediocre first half but still hung around, followed by a great second half where they traded blows with the Heat and emerged the victor.  I thought they were done when Miami pulled ahead, but they kept sticking around, capping it off with a Paul Pierce 3 pointer over LeBron to put the Celtics up by 4.  Remember ABOUT 80%.  I try to pay attention to all the statistics the talking heads throw at us throughout the series, and 80% is about the percentage that the team will win in many situations.  Whether it be home court advantage, the winner of game 1 or game 5.  For example, whoever wins game 1 goes on to win 76% of the series.  Whoever wins game 5 will win 84% of the time.  If you are a gambler, you now know the odds to take if ever in that situation.  Even still, I am not sure I would take the Celtics in this series.  I know that I did not predict the Thunder or the Celtics to win their series, but this is what I would have wanted to happen.  After the Knicks lost, these are the two teams I would have wanted to see meet in the NBA finals.  Hopefully the Celtics can make that happen tonight.  If not, they only have a 30% chance of winning game 7. 

NBA LOTTERY

With the conspiracy riddled storyline of the Hornets attaining the number 1 pick, I decided to focus on the number one picks of the last 13 years.  You can read all about the conspiracy theorists if you like by simply searching for "NBA lottery conspiracy".  What I wanted to look into was what all the number 1 picks have done.  This should be a no brainer right?  The number one pick should be the easiest pick in all the draft, and there is usually a consensus on who should be chosen.  Here are the last fourteen number one picks and what they have achieved. 

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NBA Lottery Number 1 Picks from 1998-2011

Year	Player	Drafted By	Position	Num Years	Finals App.
1998	Michael Olowokandi	LA Clippers	C	10 yrs	0
1999	Elton Brand	Chicago Bulls	PF	13 yrs +	0
2000	Kenyon Martin	NJ Nets	PF	12 yrs +	2
2001	Kwame Brown	Washington Wizards	C	11 yrs +	0
2002	Yao Ming	Houston Rockets	C	9 yrs	0
2003	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	SF	9 yrs +	2
2004	Dwight Howard	Orlando Magic	C	8 yrs +	1
2005	Andrew Bogut	Milwaukee Bucks	C	7 yrs +	0
2006	Andrea Bargnani	Toronto Raptors	F/C	6 yrs +	0
2007	Greg Oden	Portland Trailblazers	C	5 yrs	0
2008	Derrick Rose	Chicago Bulls	PG	4 yrs +	0
2009	Blake Griffin	LA Clippers	PF	3 yrs +	0
2010	John Wall	Washington Wizards	PG	2 yrs +	0
2011	Kyrie Irving	Cleveland Cavaliers	PG	1 yr +	0
2012	Anthony Davis	NO Hornets	F/C	??	??

"+" denotes still playing in the NBA

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This chart illustrates that there are no guarantees when you have the number one pick. In fact, 4 teams have had two shots at it and it's arguable that only the Chicago Bulls have a chance at a championship in the near future. There are already three players no longer in the league: Olowokandi, Yao Ming and Greg Oden. One supposed golden rule of basketball is that you can't teach height and you will not be faulted for choosing a center. But that line of thinking may be going away. Of the 6 centers chosen in the last 14 years, only Dwight Howard came close and played in the NBA Finals. Most teams seem to be coming to that mindset, as 3 out of the last 4 number one selections have been point guards. Of the 14 players chosen, there have only been 4 MVPs between 2 players: LeBron with 3 of them and Derrick Rose with the other. Finally, I hope that I am not surprising anyone, but there were 4 NBA Finals appearances and no championships. Based on history, it does not bode well for Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Hornets, assuming he is the one chosen.

Teams need to rethink how they choose players. There should be less of an emphasis on the draft. Free agency and trades should be the means to success. For the draft, I would analyze players more on buy in than on talent. It would probably get me fired, but would I want to go through what the Magic have with Dwight Howard? I would probably not pick him based on this past year. I am sure there are ways to evaluate a player to see if they would become a head case. It should not be that hard. I wish the best of luck to Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Hornets, but only one thing is certain when I look at that chart, and that is there are no guarantees.