2nd Round (late) Preview and Predictions

Now that the first round is over and the Knicks are out of the playoffs, I can concentrate on making (mostly) unbiased predictions for the road to the NBA Finals.  The matchups are:

MIA vs IND, MIA currently leads 1-0

BOS vs PHI, BOS currently leads 1-0

SAS vs LAC

OKC vs LAL

The Eastern Conference games are not really interesting, but have the potential to be dramatic.  Two "Big 3" teams versus two fundamental, no superstar teams.  Miami, which is really a big two and Chris Bosh, will prove once and for all that including Chris Bosh was really a mistake.  Sure it looked great and made us all hate Miami more, but if Pat Riley had really thought about it and had to do it all over again, he probably would have signed LeBron and saved the rest of the money for defense and role players.  Think about how dangerous they would be if they had enough money to sign a competent veteran point guard and at least one other defense stalwart at one of the other positions for what they paid Bosh.  I have no clue who was an available mid level free agent point guard at the time, but it would have been great if they could have gotten an Andre Miller lobber type or a Chauncey Billups leadership type.  Then they could have just concentrated on defense and looked for a nice role player.  Alright, Andre Miller makes $7.8M and Chauncey $10.7, but that would have left some cap space compared to Bosh's $14.5M.  If they do not win this year, I see some kind of Bosh deal happening, especially with the new collective bargaining agreement. 

Miami will win this series in 6 games.  Chris Bosh is hurt but they will not miss him until the Indiana bigs start taking over.  Indiana is a good team and deserved the 3rd seed, but they play largely the same style as Miami without the superstars.  They put up a good fight in the first game for three quarters, but could not keep it up.  I suspect that will be the story for a large part of the series and they will squeak by with two games, getting a lucky break here and there.  Not entirely interested in this series.  Miami in 6. 

The Boston/Philadelphia series is also not that interesting to me.  I have always liked the current incarnation of the Celtics, but they are playing hurt and very old.  This is the series with the potential for an upset.    I would much rather see a Boston/Miami Eastern Conference Finals, but they may not get that far.  Philadelphia just needs that one win to gain some confidence and Doug Collins seems to be very capable in keeping them focused and closing out the series.  (Disclaimer:  I am currently watching game 2 and have changed the next sentence at least four times) Philly in 7. 

Now for the good stuff.  I would never have envisioned saying this three years ago, or even last year, but I am looking forward to San Antonio playing the Clippers and OKC playing the Lakers.  I would also never have guessed that I would be happy to see San Antonio play well and picked them to win it all.  From the limited time I have seen them play, it seems like they are the most sound team in the NBA.  With that said, San Antonio will roll through the Clippers.  This is a 5 game series at most.  I love Chris Paul and think he is amazing, but his supporting cast lacks too much and when he is off the court the Clippers are atrocious.  Sadly, they will probably end up with two more injuries along the way.  Plus I saw some crazy stat like Blake Griffin had 38 field goals in the paint and none outside.  That is incredible and no way the Spurs allow anything remotely like that.  San Antonio in 5.

The OKC/Lakers matchup is peculiar.  I know OKC is the higher seed, but are they really the better team?  About a month ago, when Durant's name was in the MVP talks, I may have thought OKC would run away with it, but it still the Lakers.  Pau Gasol may have finally come out of his funk and Kobe will always be Kobe, so the Lakers are a dangerous team.  We also cannot forget The Elbow.  And if I were a Thunder, like Ibaka or Perkins, would I take a flagrant 2 if I saw Metta taking a soft layup?  I am not a vindictive person, but I would consider and would not be surprised if that happened.  That could potentially give the Lakers a game and thus, the series.  So tough call with this one.  I think the Lakers lose this series if Kobe becomes option 1, 2 and 3, while Gasol and Bynum fight for the rest of the touches.  However, if they play a solid inside out game, they probably beat OKC.  Lakers in 6. 

I am excited for the second round.  The first round was largely predictable and somewhat boring, probably because the Eastern Conference talent is too few and is not that intriguing right now.  The second round, however, has a few interesting matchups.  Old school versus new school, teams versus superstars.  I think some of the series may go shorter than I predicted, but the games themselves will be a lot more fun.  This should be great.